Nifty - Pre-Budget Confusion

The Nifty gained 69 points over the week to close at 4826. A
volatile week for the markets as the index traded within the 4700-
4850 band. Technically, the zone of 4650-4700 holds a lot of
importance from a MT perspective as the neckline of a bullish
“H&S” pattern and the 200-EMA exists within this area and it was
encouraging to see the index rebound from the same. There is
still no concrete evidence on the charts to indicate a confirmed
bottom and hence we shall look out for more triggers early this
week. There are a few positive signals on the daily indicators that
have seen divergence along with an oversold reading. Even the
weekly indicators have tested the OS line after a long gap. The
other positives come from external factors, as the Dow seems to
be close to a bottom while the Dollar Index could top out near the
resistance of 81. On the negative side, the DM study continues
to be in sell mode and the averages remain above the price
action. Overall, the indices are likely to witness further recovery
but for the same to be understood as a reversal the key level of
16600 (4960 on the Nifty) needs to be surpassed this week.