Gold Falls as Dollar Jumps to Three-Year High on U.S. Jobs Data

Gold futures fell to a one-week low as the dollar surged to the highest in almost three years after U.S. payrolls rose more than forecast in June, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale back stimulus.

The greenback climbed as much as 1.6 percent against a basket of major currencies, eroding the appeal of gold as an alternative investment. Payrolls rose by 195,000 workers for a second straight month, the government said today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey projected a 165,000 gain. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures jumped after the jobs data.

“A better jobs report means there’s less flight to safety,” Brian Booth, a senior market strategist at Long Leaf Trading Group in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “The initial reaction to the report was a push higher in the dollar and a rise in stocks, and for as long as that continues, gold will struggle.”

Gold futures for August delivery slumped 3.1 percent to settle at $1,212.70 an ounce at 1:46 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price touched $1,206.90, the lowest for a most-active contract since June 28. Trading was 25 percent above the 100-day average for this time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Yesterday, the Comex floor was closed for the Independence Day holiday, and spot gold dropped 0.2 percent. Today, the Dollar Index, a gauge against six currencies, rose to the highest since July 13, 2010.

Silver futures for September delivery tumbled 4.9 percent to $18.736 an ounce on the Comex, the biggest decline since June 20. The metal has dropped 38 percent this year, the most among the 24 raw materials in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index.

The RBI banned imports on a consignment basis, making it difficult for jewellers to source raw material. The government also raised import duty on the yellow metal to 8 percent.

Gold traders in India, the world's biggest buyer of the metal, preferred to stay on the sidelines as a seasonally slack demand period was underway, with prices extending the fall from their highest in a week.

The RBI banned imports on a consignment basis, making it difficult for jewellers to source raw material. The government also raised import duty on the yellow metal to 8 percent.

"It is difficult to sell even 5 kg per day as the marriage season is almost over," said Daman Prakash Rathod, director with Chennai-based wholesaler MNC Bullion.

The festival and marriage season will restart in August and continue till December.

Gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) extended losses for a second day on Friday, easing from their highest level in a week.

The actively traded gold contract for August delivery on the MCX was 0.09 percent lower at 26,120 rupees per 10 grams. It hit a high of Rs 26,430 on Wednesday, the highest since June 26.

Silver contract for September delivery on the MCX was 1.19 percent lower at Rs 40,485 per kg.

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What will Greet Gold in H2, 2013: India Festival Demand or India Import Curbs?

While one cannot ascertain if gold imports by India would be met with added curbs, the Finance Ministry here is sure to lose sleep over the matter as festivities kick in and Rupee rout continues.

The second half of 2013 is marked by festivities in India and thereby enhanced gold demand. From Ramadan to Diwali to Dusserah to Dhanteras, Indians would go on a spiritual and materialistic binge bringing cheers to the markets and dating optimism.

But will that be the case this time around too as Current Account Deficit is still the Guerrilla in the room contributing substantially to Rupee weakness which has fallen to a record 60.22 against Dollar as of writing this. Will there be additional curbs on imports by India government?

A recent Reuters’ report quoting unidentified official suggests that this is unlikely as there are threats of enhanced smuggling activities in gold.

India recently hiked the import duty on gold to 8% and RBI too put in restrictions on import funding by banks.

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These measures helped the gold imports by India to come down substantially as latest data say.

"Import of gold and silver is understood to have declined substantially to $2-2.5 billion in June, much below the $8.39 billion imported in May, and over $7 billion in April," a senior government official said and was quoted by the Indian Express as saying.

June imports of Gold have dipped to a paltry 28 tons when compared to 162 tons in May. Data says that imports of gold to Gujarat, a major consuming centre, dipped to 3.73 tons in June against the 37.61 tons registered in May as per the air cargo complex data.

Trend seasonal

“The physical trend has always been very seasonal,” said Bernard Sin, the head of currency and metal trading at MKS (Switzerland) SA to Bloomberg on gold physical demand.

It was intense volatile markets today, we have seen a choppy session. Ups & down were through out the day. IT sector was zooming today as dollar traded stronger . Banking sector opened weak today while during mid session it moves up. Over all market breadth was positive.

Gold, silver are highly price volatile commodities. Traders have to be very careful while trading in them. Today gold lowers slightly by its three months highest in earlier sessions.