1.5 million Indian jobs to be lost by March 2009

New Delhi: With global downturn taking its toll on India, about 15 lakh people employed in the exporting sector will be out of jobs by March 2009, Commerce Secretary G K Pillai said on Tuesday.

"We have figures from August till middle of January. We estimate something like between 7-10 lakh job losses till now," Pillai told a television news channel.

He said if the slowdown, especially in the US, Europe and Japan continues, another five lakh people would be unemployed by March.

Earlier in the day, Pillai told reporters that the prospects for the country's outward trade look bleak for the next fiscal as well.

"It would be an achievement if we reach USE 160 billion-mark in 2009-2010," he said.

After an impressive expansion of over 30 per cent in the first six months of 2008-09, export growth has turned negative with the result that the total shipments in the current fiscal would fall much short of the USD 200 billion target.

Though exports account for less than 20 per cent of the country's GDP, the sector is highly employment oriented with the total estimated 6.5 crore workforce.

"Exports are going to come down and we have to live with it," Pillai said.

Regardless of all the ministerial hype the past few years,
that the economy is resilient and can stand on its own feet,
the fact is, the USA is the global economic engine and
other countries like India and China need it more than
the USA need them.

"Global slowdown has dampened hiring prospects of India Inc, causing its outlook to hit the lowest ebb, with only 19 per cent employers having positive recruitment plans in the next three months, according to global staffing services firm Manpower. This is the weakest outlook observed in India since Q3 2005. This outlook represents considerable decrease of 24 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 27 percentage points year-on-year, the Manpower employment outlook survey for the first quarter of 2009 said. Of the 3,557 employers surveyed, 22 per cent expect an increase in staffing levels in the first quarter of 2009, four per cent anticipate a decrease, and 63 per cent are expecting no change. However, recruiting confidence among employers in India is the strongest of all the eight countries and territories surveyed across the Asia-Pacific region for Q1 2009. "
So all is not gloom and doom as far as the employment outlook for India is concerned, in the medium term at least! For now however, some belt-tightening seems to be a foregone conclusion!