short term trend of the market:

short term trend of the market:

as per technicals 16,900-17,000 / 5020-5050 levels was said to act as a strong
resistance. As expected, during last week, indices moved within the range of 16,600 - 16,900 / 4,980 - 5,070 levels
and but on the last day, indices moved above the 200 day EMA. - 16702.

next week may push indices up to 18,000 - 18,300 / 5,350 - 5,400 levels. anyway, in next 2 - 3 weeks there will be witness some profit booking.try to book profit around 18,000 -18,300 / 5,350 - 5,400 levels.

http://vbulls.com/forum/forums.asp?ForumId=8

the present gain in sensex/nifty are all short term.
sensex will have a very stiff resistance at 17500
result seasons will be over by middle of May 2008 (may by 10th May, 2008)
during the first week of any month (especially during quarterly result season) there may be bull run (even bear will take a bull face mask) to take stake - for running bear run during the rest of the month.

the following are unfavourable for the market:-
1) Political instability
2) Test case election in Karnataka ( this will show the strength of Congress. If they win (as opinion pool predict - they say Congress will have clear majority in Assembly) this will give boldness for Congress and this may lead to isolation from rest of the Partners (especially Left) in UPA. Left and BJP and other opposition will go further aggressive to get popularity. Karnataka is going to be lose-lose game for Congress.
3) Increase in inflation.
4) 6th [pay commission report (whether implemented or not implemented if going to be a headache for Congress (in isolation) -- other parties (including those in treasury will distance itself and shed crockotile tears.
5) falling rupee value
6) higher importation bill due to Crude Oil prices moving beyond USD 120.00, import of Steel, Cement, etc., Many domestic industries may be at receving end and they may not cooperate weith government and free market regime.
7) higher CRR (credit policy of Federal Bank - say Reserve Bank of India.
8) Banks are likely to increase interest rate because of higher CRR
9) writting off Rs.60000 crores of Agricultral loan.
10) Unable to increase fueld prices (due to political pressure - impending election) losses to OMC (Oil marketing companies) (Reliance closed their shutter for domestic sales many (Essar, Shell may be forced to follow suit) Government has to provide bonds to PSU / OMC as stop loss solution.

Let us expect anything better from the stock market

be cautious

book profit before May 10, 2008.

hold cash for re-entry during end May and leave the market early June.

during 2nd and 3rd week of May go short in F&O - try to square up daily - because every day will have different tones - intgernational market also influence Indian market.

Since rupee is weaking - BOP is at disadvantage position - remain FII, Hedge funds/pensions fund may desert the Indian Market and sensex may touch 14,000 or below by end June 2008.

let us watch whether my views are correct.

if I went wrong report me back by end of June 2008.