Liberhan Report: A Time Bomb That Fizzled Out

It may seem like a time bomb that fizzled out. If the Liberhan Commission's report had been submitted when leading saffron figures like L K Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and Uma Bharati were central ministers and the VHP brass was a powerful adjunct to the government, its contents might well have proved explosive.

Coming as it did when Advani is highly unlikely to be in the running for a post and BJP itself is in the shade after a poll defeat, the report may give Congress some handy ammunition to target its rival but it is not going to alter or cut short a political career. Any adverse comments on BJP leaders will be an embarrassment to the party, but it seems to feel that it can ride out the storm some 18 years after the demolition.

Criticism of Advani will, however, hurt the leader to the extent that he has tried hard to play down the hawkish aspects of his image and come across as a consensus-builder prepared to reach out to Muslim and Christian religious leaders. The "inclusive" approach in his failed 2009 campaign was an attempt to break with his Ayodhya storm trooper image.

The submission does bring the curtain down on a long-running soap where the suspense has been stretched just a bit too far, perhaps to the point where the audience has nodded off in boredom. Justice Liberhan's contention that witnesses were not cooperative seems to stretch credulity a bit given that many of the dramatis personae turned proceedings into a platform to declaim their points of view.

There is, however, a sense of closure and BJP will hope that its leaders have escaped without being seriously indicted for a role in the "conspiracy" to demolish the Babri Masjid. The party is pinning its hope on what it feels is a lack of any direct evidence and the likelihood of the commission having to rely on circumstances like Sangh Parivar's role in organising the kar sewa at Ayodhya on December 6, 1992.

Establishing that BJP leaders had the foreknowledge of any plot to destroy the masjid would not be easy though some of the Sangh figures like Ashok Singhal or Giriraj Kishore might come in for harsher condemnation. The report may well be fodder for factional fights raging in BJP, something Congress would be happy to stoke, with sections opposed to Advani likely to use the report to target the saffron veteran and those close to him.

The "secular" parties like Left, SP and RJD, apart from Congress, can be expected to use the report to argue that BJP is a party with an extremist agenda and cannot be trusted to be in government. Coming as the report does after BJP's campaign was seen to be shrill and backward-looking, the Liberhan findings do little to improve the image. But amongst its critics, SP will be hamstrung with the presence of Kalyan Singh in its ranks.

BJP's allies like JD(U) and SAD will face a few uncomfortable moments when they are asked for their reactions to any critical references to BJP leaders like Advani, but as has been the case in the past, the report is not going to lead to any rupture in NDA. JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar can be expected to do some tightrope walking as he has worked hard to neutralise the antipathy of Muslims towards his government due to his partnership with BJP.

The report, which is to be tabled in Parliament, will remain something of a Damocles sword for BJP. The government is bound to see it as a weapon to keep the main Opposition off balance as the Babri Masjid demolition is one issue on which political parties are likely to join hands against BJP. The government has an advantage as it can time just when to bring the report to Parliament with an Action Taken Report that can put further pressure on BJP.